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圣诞节假期结束恢复交易后，美国10年期公债利率下滑至3.88%，仍然接近7月底以来的最低水平。 此降幅归因于美国公布通胀淡化数据，推升来年更早、更大幅度的降息预期。 上周五的最新数据显示，11月美国PCE物价指数下降0.1%，这是自2022年2月以来首见下滑，超出华尔街持平的预测。 目前，市场押注联准会于3月例会降息25个基点的可能性为75%。 依CME FedWatch 工具显示，明年总共降息预计将超过150个基点。
(美国十年期公债利率)
(2024年三月美联储利率预测，CME FedWatch Tool)
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