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从2020 年3月疫情爆发以来,英国政府债务已飙升超过40%,达到近2.6万亿英镑(3.3万亿美元),这是2020年代初以来的最高水平,与该国年度国内生产总值的规模大致相同。
尽管包括美国在内的一些国家的债务占其国内生产总值的比例更高,但英国与众不同,因为其1/4政府债务是“与指数连结”,这意味着它与通货膨胀水准挂钩。过去18个月,随着英国物价飙升,政府对通膨挂钩债券的还款和利息也随之飙升。
在最近一个财政年度, 高通胀导致英国的偿债成本占国内生产总值的比重达到四十多年来之最,在该国应对经济增长疲软和大选日益临近之际,财政遭受沉重压力。信评公司惠誉(Fitch)表示,英国现在的偿债支出占政府收入的比例高于任何其他发达经济体。
英国日益增长的债务负担使其处境岌岌可危。如果国家信用评级被下调可能会进一步提高借贷成本,尽管影响可能有限。惠誉早些时候取消美国最高AAA 评级时,即因美国债务比提高为原因之一。惠誉目前对英国的评级展望为负面,这意味着该国评级从目前的 AA- 级下调至 A 级的风险增加。
穆迪(Moody’s)和标准普尔(S&P)将于10月20日发布英国评级更新,惠誉将于12月1日发布评级更新。

(UK信贷评级, Fitch)
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