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因货币政策预期日元止跌，日零售工业生产数据好坏参半 

um editor

UM Editor

2023年10月31日

日元因 YCC 改变预期上涨 

日元兑美元升值，创近3周新高。日本媒体报导日本央行可能在周二改变货币政策，提振市场乐观气氛。 

日本央行调整殖利率曲线控制以试图影响利率，其可能允许日本长期利率上升。具体来说，它可能会让10年期政府公债的利率升至1%以上。上次，日本央行在 7 月将殖利率曲线控制从 0.5% 调整至 1%。较高的利率往往会使货币对投资者更有价值。因此，日本升息的可能性帮助日圆兑美元走强。 

(USD/JPY 年线图) 

日本零售销售自疫情复苏 

日本 9 月零售额较去年同期成长 5.8%。这比 7 月和 8 月销售额成长 7% 的增幅要慢。 9 月的涨幅与预期的 5.9% 涨幅基本一致。尽管如此，这仍然是日本零售额连续第 19 个月成长。这表明消费者支出在疫情期间下降后持续复苏。 

(日本零售销售，日本经济产业省) 

日本工业生产逊于预期 

9月份，日本工业生产较上月小幅成长0.2%。然而，这一数字低于市场预期的2.5%的成长。 9 月的业绩较上月下降 0.7% 有所改善。重要的是，这标志着工业产出自六月以来首次出现积极变化。 

产量增长主要是由动机车制造显著改善所推动的，与8月下降3.9%相比，机动车制造大幅成长6.0%。此外，通用和商用机械产量增加2.6%，而上月则下降1.0%。但从全年比较来看，9月工业产出下降4.6%。继 8 月工业生产下降 4.4% 后，工业生产连续第三个月萎缩。 

(日本工业生产，日本经济产业省) 

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