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坚实就业市场将或令RBA开启加息

um editor

UM Editor

2023年10月19日

澳洲失业率创三个月新低 

澳洲9月失业率小幅下降，降至3.6%，为三个月来新低。这一数字低于市场预期的3.7%，但较8月的3.7%有所改善。失业人数也有所下降，减少1.98万人，总数达52.05万人。同时，青年失业率维持在8.1%。 

另一方面，就业人数小幅增加6,700人，达到1,411万人，低于市场预期的2万人。这一增幅是继 8 月增加 6.33 万人之后出现的。兼职就业人数大幅增加4.65万人，达430万人；全职就业人数减少3.99万人，达981万人。 

(失业率，澳洲统计局) 

劳参率维持在66.7% 

衡量积极求职人数比例的劳动参与率从上月创纪录的67%下降至66.7%，低于预测的67%。同时，就业不足率（即寻求更多工作的个人百分比）略有下降，从 6.5% 降至 6.4%。 

澳洲央行可能再启加息 

澳洲储备银行（RBA）已连续四个月维持利率不变。这是因为澳洲央行正试图评估2022年5月至2023年6月期间的12次加息是否足以控制通膨。 

澳洲央行预计，2025年6月，通膨将回到2-3%的目标。不过，澳洲央行还预计，2023年底，失业率将升至4%。澳洲央行将于11月10日发布修订后的预估。 

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