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欧央行利率会议鹰派与鸽派争论升温 

um editor

UM Editor

2023年09月13日

欧元区自2022年7月以来，利率已上涨4.25个百分点。但随着该区衰退即将来临的迹像变得越来越明显，而在目前年度物价增长率为10.6% 峰值的一半时，关于未来利率走向ECB内部出现分歧。部分官员倾向再加25 bps，部分官员则希望暂停加息。 

在夏季结束之时，欧元区制造业和服务业的活动指标出现经济即将放缓现象。较高的利率3.75%~4.50% 限制了银行放贷。事实上，9月11日欧盟委员会将欧元区今年的增长前景从 1.1%下调至 0.8%，因其中最大经济体德国出现萎缩。 

三个面向增加ECB决策难度: 

1. 核心通膨仍然处于高位，尽管有所放缓，但上个月的增长率为5.3%，远高于历史平均。由于劳动力市场呈现紧张，特别是在服务业，年度工资增长加剧价格压力。 

2. 石油价格上涨，OPEC+盟国减产，还有澳大利亚液化天然气工厂的罢工行动，这些事件为欧元区经济添上更多变数。物价可能会见到更长时间内保持高位。 

3. ECB官员间明显分化，在通膨回落后，欧洲央行更愿意传达鹰派倾向。欧洲央行过去曾违背市场预期，为重拾威信，将持续强调其抗通胀的信誉。 

不论此次决议为何，欧洲央行总裁拉加德都需要坚定地表达ECB实现通膨目标的承诺，并表示降息仍然是一个遥远的前景。这是一个艰难的决定，但要传达这信息，行动胜于雄辩。 

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