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周一,WTI 原油期货大幅下跌 5%,接近每桶 70 美元,完全吞噬前一周的涨幅。 价格压力主要是由沙特阿拉伯的策略性降价和欧佩克产量增加所推动,其消灭中东地缘政治紧张局势带来的影响。沙特阿拉伯采取一项值得市场注意的措举,宣布调降输往亚洲的主要阿拉伯轻质原油2 月官方售价(OSP),自基准价格每桶削减2 美元至1.50 美元,创下27 个月来的最低水平。
根据路透社报导,OPEC 12 月石油总产量每日增加7万桶,达到 2,788 万桶。 伊拉克、安哥拉和尼日利亚的产量皆成长,抵消沙特阿拉伯和其他欧佩克+产油国持续减产的影响。 另外,美国石油钻井平台数量上周增加到 501 座,分析师预计今年将再增加 20 多个钻井平台。与此同时,中东地缘政治紧张局势持续升级,影响油价的因素更加复杂。 美国国务卿布林肯警告称,如果不积极和平谈判,冲突可能会再度恶化和蔓延。 全球石油市场仍然与供需变化、产区的政治局势以及主要石油生产国的战略选择之间的相互作用密切相关。 尽管欧佩克产量决定等市场基本面目前影响价格更大,但对冲突风险造成的破坏非常敏感。

(WTI 原油 USD/Bbl,月线图)
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