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今日重点关注黄金。
基本面上,近期国内金价与国际金价产生了较大的背离走势,但是国内沪金的多头驱动更多是因为本币贬值,黄金进口也收到限制的影响。国际伦金很难受此驱动,但是随着各国的货币政策走到尾声,配合通胀回落以及经济下行的预期,国际金价有一定的上行动能。目前来看,市场仍需要一个刺激锚点来让金价再度开启长期的多头趋势。
技术面上,黄金日线图上的随机震荡指标金叉确立,暗示多头趋势的到来。

(黄金日线图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
行情自上周四触及200日均线后迎来了反弹趋势,不过值得注意的是上方即将触及下行趋势线,剩余反弹空间较狭窄。

(黄金4小时图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
4小时图上,随机震荡指标已经进入超买区域,暗示了黄金潜在的多头或将受阻。不过从图表上看,行情触及200周期均线后,大实体阳K突破了上周五以来的盘整区间,亚盘大概率仍将延续多头趋势。

(黄金1小时周期图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
根据Ultima Markets MT4中的pivot指标,当日中枢价位1930.16,
1930.16之上看涨,第一目标1937.62,第二目标1941.74
1930.16之下看跌,第一目标1925.98,第二目标1918.40
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