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沙乌地阿拉伯和俄罗斯在9月5日声明中表示,将把石油供应削减措施延长至 2023年底。该项政策推高了最近几周一直在上涨的油价,布伦特原油期货今年首次突破每桶90美元,而美国WTI原油价格达到87美元。更加严格的生产控管让市场感到讶异,其显示产油盟国坚实控制价格的决心,然而此时正值国际能源署(IEA)估计全球原油消费正以创纪录的速度增长之际。中国为沙乌地阿拉伯最重要客户,虽然中国今年经济表现疲软,自6月中旬以来,原油价格仍然上涨20%以上。

(布伦特原油期货,Investing.com)

(WTI原油期货,Investing.com)
推升油价可能具政治意图,沙国正进行雄心勃勃的”2030年愿景”计划需要庞大资金进行基建,其中包括耗资5000亿美元的Neom未来城建设,目的是改造国家经济,减少对石油的依赖,并创造就业机会。另一方面,西方制裁迫使俄国用折扣价向中国和印度等国家出售石油,如今市况将让其得利。 OPEC+宁愿牺牲客户关系也要拱固市况之举可能让国际政治摩擦增温。
价格上涨当然受到油国和美国页岩油商等的欢迎,但这可能会使FED遏制通膨的努力变得复杂化。 8 月份中国制造业活动意外扩张,以及一系列疫情后复苏政策的实施,引发了投资人乐观情绪,油市有望在第四季续扬,来至重要技术及心理面的百元关口。
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