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滞胀阴霾笼罩欧央行，利率路径难决断 

um editor

UM Editor

2023年09月14日

今日重点关注欧元兑美元。 

基本面上，昨日美国通胀数据再度上行，让沉寂许久的炒通胀行情再度来袭。由于能源和各种其他商品的价格上涨，美国8月通胀出现今年最大月度增幅。即便剔除剔除住房和能源在内的服务通胀环比上涨0.4%，为五个月以来最快。不过最终市场行情的回落暗示了市场依旧判断9月份利率决议会暂停加息。 

欧元兑美元而言，美联储的数据和货币政策影响最多亚盘就消化掉，更多是关注今夜的欧央行利率决议。由于欧元区第二季度GDP环比增速从0.3%下调至0.1%，最新的PMI数据也显示8月份服务业和制造业经济活动萎缩加剧。经济的萎靡配合居高不下的通胀，滞胀的阴霾让欧央行今日的利率决议充满悬念。若欧央行在今天选择一年来首次的暂停加息同时没有额外的鹰派发言，欧元兑美元或将进一步下行。 

技术面上，欧元日线空头趋势暂时占据上风。200日均线已经被突破，汇价完全在200均线下方，33日均线和65日均线也形成死叉下行。

（欧元兑美元日周期图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

值得注意的是，在短期均线组接近200日均线期间，行情大概率以震荡位置，彻底的空头趋势需要等待短期均线组也跌破200日均线下方。因此本周行情虽然开始上行，但目前判断为反弹，同时反弹力度较弱。 

（欧元兑美元4小时周期图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

4小时图上，1.07665与65周期均线的重叠部分是极强的阻力区域，行情尝试两次突破均告失败。行情在没有彻底涨破该阻力前，空头力量就始终略强于多头。 

（欧元兑美元1小时周期图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

1小时图上，旗形震荡仍在进行，汇价亚盘或仍将在震荡区域内运行。交易机会需等待随机震荡指标的信号，或者短期均线组回踩后行情跌破前低。 

（欧元兑美元1小时周期图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

根据Ultima Markets MT4中的pivot指标，当日中枢价位1.07351， 

1.07351之上看涨，第一目标1.07595，第二目标1.07893 

1.07351之下看跌，第一目标1.07056，第二目标1.06813 

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