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今日重点关注澳元兑美元。
基本面上,澳大利亚8月CPI数据将于今日公布,市场预期通胀或将从7月的4.9%升至5.2%,从而结束最近的稳步下降趋势,引发有关年底前进一步加息的讨论。9月澳洲联储利率决议上表示,暂停加息将提供时间评估加息的影响。而当前劳动力市场条件仍然紧张。
澳大利亚的通胀已经达到峰值。综合来看,8月通胀上行是大概率事件,但是上涨原因更多在于澳元贬值和油价上涨的因素。因此澳联储或想让子弹飞会,再决定是否需要加息。今日数据公布后,澳元或将反弹,但是能否形成强势的上涨需要打个问号。
技术面上,日线图上随机震荡指标字9月22日确认向下后,汇率并未顺势下行反而震荡三个交易日。

(澳元兑美元日线图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
昨日行情跌破5日短期均线,暗示震荡或将结束,等待跌破9月21日低点后即可寻找做空机会。

(澳元兑美元4小时图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
4小时图上,近期的下跌并非一帆风顺,在接近前低之际,随机震荡指标却并未快速进入超卖区间。行情或将在前低附近受到支撑,随机震荡指标届时将走出底背离的结构。

(澳元兑美元1小时周期图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
1小时周期前期的三波上涨结构完整,行情调整理论上已经结束,但是不能排除澳元将走出更长周期的调整结构,若如此则后续反弹至少看向100%的斐波那契位置。但是行情今日若没有开启全面反弹,则行情在回踩均线后将快速下跌。

(澳元兑美元1小时周期图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
根据Ultima Markets MT4中的pivot指标,当日中枢价位0.64050,
0.64050之上看涨,第一目标0.64218,第二目标0.64483
0.64050之下看跌,第一目标0.63792,第二目标0.63619
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