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美国8月份通膨数据喜忧参半，CPI意外升温

um editor

UM Editor

2023年09月14日

美国劳工部(BLS) 9月13日发布8月消费者物价指数(CPI) 年增3.7%，稍高于市场预估值3.6%，也高于前值3.2%；不过扣除食品和能源成本的核心CPI年增4.3%，符合市场预估且低于前值4.7%，是近两年来增幅小的一次，但仍高于Fed的2%目标。

 (美国消费者物价指数CPI)

自报告上细项观察，能源是美国8月CPI成长主因，占CPI涨幅的一半以上，按月来看成长5.6%远高上月的0.1%增速。按年来看，8月住房价格年增 7.3%，占核心 CPI 的 70% 以上。不过住房通膨率正在大幅下降，成长放缓的态势变得更加明显，8 月交通运输 (10.3%) 首次击败住房，成为核心 CPI 最大推动因素。 OPEC+油国减产，还有美国汽车工人联合会 (The United Auto Workers)对通用汽车、福特和Stellantis进行罢工威胁皆为抗通膨之役埋下变数。

此CPI 报告是Fed下周货币政策会议前看到的最后重要经济数据，芝商所FedWatch Tool 显示，利率期货市场预估下周维持利率不变的机率为97%，升息1 码(25 bps )机率仅3%。不过11月会议上利率按兵不动与升息1码的机率各占 6成与近4成。

(细项分类， U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS)

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