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通胀下行无碍宽松政策，利差推动日元贬值

um editor

UM Editor

2023年08月18日

本周最后一个工作日，日本公布最新的7月核心CPI年率。数据在7月份出现放缓，与日本央行的预期相符，这或将为日本央行继续保持宽松政策立场提供支持。核心CPI（不包括生鲜食品）同比增长3.1%，略低于前一个月的3.3%。这一放缓趋势似乎与能源价格下跌有关，特别是在东京地区的数据显示通胀略有减缓。

（日本近一年通胀水平）

尽管如此，日本央行在维持宽松政策方面仍然坚定，未迅速加息与其他主要央行形成鲜明对比。日本央行采取了一系列举措，包括允许长期国债收益率升至1%，以应对潜在的经济风险。然而，这些政策并未能阻止日元贬值。

美元兑日元的汇率这两日开始回落，但是依旧保持在145高位上方。随着时间的推移，日本的利差问题可能会导致资本流出，寻求更高回报的资金将流向海外，从而对日元施加下行压力。

（美元兑日元日线周期，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

要实现日元的复苏并避免进一步的贬值，外部因素可能会发挥关键作用。外国经济的危机或衰退可能刺激对降息的押注，从而缩小日本和海外利差，有助于提振日元。然而，目前美国经济的弹性可能限制了这种可能性。

尽管日本政府可以通过干预市场来减缓日元贬值，但这很可能无法改变其长期趋势。150整数关口是下一个关键的区间，若美元兑日元快速升至该区间，则日本央行依旧存在概率出手干预。

总的来说，日本央行通胀和货币政策的因素以及全球经济情势将继续对未来日元的走势产生影响。在当前情况下，日本央行的宽松政策可能继续支持日元贬值的趋势，但外部因素仍可能在未来引起变化。

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