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美联储年终保持利率不变，加息周期已见终点

um editor

UM Editor

2023年12月14日

12月会议上，美联储连续第三次将联邦基准利率维持在5.25%-5.50%不变，符合市场预期。 不过，美联储成员承认内部将讨论明年可能降息的问题。 

在其记者会声明中指出，近期数据显示虽然经济成长减速，就业增长依然有弹性，但也有所放缓。失业率仍然很低，而通货膨胀率在过去一年有明显减压，但还是处于较高水平。 

美联储亦发布最新的经济预测： 

  • 2023 年 GDP 成长率预期上修（现值2.6%，前值为2.1%），但 2024 年 GDP 成长率略有下降（现值1.4%，前值为1.5%）。 
  • 2023 年和 2024 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 通膨预期均出现向下修正。目前预估 PCE 通胀将在 2023 年达到 2.8%（此前为 3.3%）和 2024 年达到 2.4%（此前为 2.5%）。 
  • 预计2023年核心PCE为3.2%，低于先前的3.7%，2024年为2.4%，低于先前的2.6%。 
  • 2023年失业率预测维持在3.8%不变，2024年失业率预测一样维持在4.1%不变。 

另外，联邦基准利率预测点阵图显示 2024 年利率将下调。2024年底的预测利率中位数从9月的5.1% 下滑至4.6%，暗示美联储明年有可能降息75个基点。  

（联邦基准利率，FED） 

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