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全球领导人齐聚 COP28 气候高峰会,倡导摆脱化石燃料的同时,OPEC对石油需求的预期却出现分歧。 OPEC在最新报告中表示2024年原油需求将强劲成长,全球每日平均需求将增加220万桶,达到1亿436万桶。
OPEC将此增长与全球经济新高挂勾并说明:“随着中国经济改善,全球GDP回温,石油需求将得到支撑。” 经济合作暨发展组织(OECD)工业化国家的每日需求量预期将成长30万桶,来到平均每日4610万桶。 然而,非OECD国家的每日需求量将大幅成长200万桶,来到平均每日5830万桶。
12 月 15 日星期五,油市攀升,布伦特原油逼近每桶 77 美元,为两个月以来首周收涨。 几个关键因素推动升势,包括美联储对未来利率转鸽派的立场以及近期美元疲软。 此外,新的预测明年全球石油需求将强劲增长,进一步支撑价格。 上周,美联储表示可能在2024年降息,引发美元卖压并提振石油等风险资产。 美元贬值使得原油等以美元计价的商品对外国买家来说更加便宜。

(布伦特原油月线图)
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