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CPI数据浇息降息希望，美元走高

um editor

UM Editor

2024年01月12日

因能源价格下降趋势放缓，美国年通胀率从2023年11月的五个月低点 3.1% 爬升至12月的3.4%，超出市场预估的3.2%。 另外值得注意的是，按月来看，去年 12 月 CPI 成长 0.3%，高于经济学家预期的 0.2%，也高于前值的 0.1%。 

(美国消费者物价指数CPI，劳工统计局) 

剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格，2023年12月美国年度核心消费者物价通胀率降至3.9%，为2年半来的最低水平，低于上月的4%。 12 月的数据略高于市场预测的 3.8% 核心通胀率。 

(美国核心消费者物价指数Core CPI，劳工统计局) 

美联储官员发表了一系列鹰派言论。 周四，克利夫兰联邦储备银行主席梅斯特强调，根据数据，美联储遏制通胀飙升的任务尚未完成。 她表示联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）考虑在三月降息可能并不合时宜。 一天前，纽约联邦储备银行主席约翰威廉斯亦表达立场，称现在呼吁美联储降低利率还为时过早。 

周四，美元指数成功收复早盘的跌幅，升至102.6，这是近一个月来未触及的高点。 此发展与美联储将需要更多时间才开始降息的观点和最新数据契合。 

(美元指数月线图) 

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