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喜忧参半数据和强势美元令人民币承压  

um editor

UM Editor

2024年03月20日

中国零售销售去年12月录得年增7.4%后，2024年1月及2月报年增5.5%，超过市场预期的5.2%。 零售额连续第13个月成长，许多产品销量增加，如粮油（现值9.0% vs 前值5.8%）、金银饰品（现值5.0% vs 前值29.4%）、服装（现值1.9% vs 前值26.0%）、家具（现值4.6% vs 前值2.3%）、通讯设备（现值16.2% vs 前值11.0%）、汽车（现值8.7% vs 前值4.0%）、石油产品（现值5.0% vs 前值8.6%）和建筑材料（现值2.1% vs 前值-7.5%）。 但是个人护理用品（现值-0.7% vs 前值-5.9%）和办公用品（现值-8.8% vs 前值-9.0%）的销量继续萎缩。 中国国家统计局公布每年前两个月的合并数据，以消除农历新年季节因素所造成的扭曲结果。 

（零售销售YoY%，中国国家统计局） 

调查显示，2024年前两个月，中国城镇平均失业率为5.3%。2月数据略有上升，失业率达5.3%，高于1月的5.2%和2023年12月的5.1%。，为去年7月以来最高水平，本地登记劳动失业率为5.5%，移入人口失业率为4.8%，31个主要城镇失业率为5.1%，且企业员工平均每周工作时为48小时。  

中国政府设定2024年GDP成长目标达5%，失业率控制在5.5%左右，为城镇新增1,200万就业人口。 

（失业率，中国国家统计局） 

投资人咀嚼最新经济报告后，离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌破7.2，触及一周多的最低水准。 由于美国通胀数据出人意料地强劲，这给美联储今年降息的时间表和幅度增加了不确定性，迫使人民币继续面临挑战。 美国2月消费者和生产者物价上涨超出预期，导致交易员降低对美联储6月降息的预期。 随著美国债券殖利率回弹，而中国债券殖利率徘徊在历史低点附近，不断扩大的利差也给人民币带来了额外压力。 

（USDCNY周线图） 

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