Comprehensive USD/CAD for October 25, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USD/CAD for 25th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• BOC is to maintain interest rate: The weak Canadian retail sales data suggests that Canada’s tightening monetary policy has shown results. The Bank of Canada will most likely keep overnight interest rates unchanged at 5.00% tonight. 
• BOC even has pressure to cut interest rates: Canada’s GDP in the third quarter grew at an annual rate of only 0.2%, far lower than the 1.5% growth predicted by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada will cut interest rates to ease the economic downturn in the future. The market expects the overnight rate to drop to 4.75% or lower by the end of the second quarter of 2024. 
• Pay attention to the forward guidance: The Bank of Canada’s interest rate path for the year has basically been clear. Focus on the Bank of Canada’s forecast of the economy and interest rate levels in 2024. If it shows a hawkish attitude, be wary of the appreciation trend of the Canadian dollar tonight.  
• Oil prices drive the depreciation of the Canadian dollar: The price of crude oil fell rapidly after risk aversion gradually subsided, and the Canadian dollar was under pressure to depreciate. If oil prices continue to decline, the USD/CAD may continue to rise.     

USD/CAD Technical Analysis 

USD/CAD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: Although the fast line once again exceeded the slow line yesterday, the indicator has been relatively volatile since mid-October. The current upward trend is more like an adjustment trend, and it needs to wait for the exchange rate to break through the key price level to be confirmed. 
• Price Action: The three consecutive candle bars starting on October 5 are a clear downward trend. Therefore, even if the market is rising in the short term, as long as it does not break through the high point of the pin bar on October 5, it cannot be considered as the arrival of bulls. 

USD/CAD 4-hour Chart Analysis

• Wolfe wave pattern: The upward trend since October 10 has been relatively volatile, and the market trend currently forms a typical Wolfe wave pattern. Wait for point 5 to touch the upper extension line, then the market price will most likely form a short trend. 
• Elliot Wave Theory: The rapid decline since October 5 is a downward driving wave with a 5-wave structure. The rise since October 10 is temporarily determined to be a corrective wave. Only when the market price breaks through 1.37851, can it be confirmed that the downward driving wave is incorrect. 
• Fibonacci retracement: The market price broke through the 78.6% retracement of the downward trend, and there was a pullback during the US trading session yesterday. There is a certain probability that the exchange rate will rise. If a clear bearish candlestick pattern appears, the market may move lower quickly.

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.37193, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.37193, first target 1.37765, second target 1.38129; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below  1.37193, first target 1.36833, second target 1.36255. 

Conclusion 

Reviving Australian Manufacturing: A Roadmap for Success

In recent times, Australia’s manufacturing sector has faced a challenging landscape. The Manufacturing PMI hit its lowest level in six months, declining to 48 in October 2023 from 48.7 in the previous month. This marks the eighth consecutive monthly decline in business conditions, a cause for concern.

Understanding the Decline

The Manufacturing PMI decline is primarily attributed to decreased production and diminished new order volumes in response to weakened demand. It’s a ripple effect that has been impacting the industry, causing concern among stakeholders.

Input expenses have witnessed a notable surge, driven by mounting inflationary pressures reaching a peak not seen in seven months. One of the principal contributors to these rising input expenses is escalating fuel costs. Although output charges also rose, the pace of increase was comparatively slower.

The current state of the market is making business sentiment worse than it has been in the past three and a half years. A ray of hope exists in the form of employment levels, which have continued to rise despite these obstacles.

(Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI，S&P Global) 

The Role of Composite PMI

The Composite PMI is equally important in understanding the economic landscape. In October 2023, it dropped to 47.3, plunging from 51.5 in the preceding month. This figure represents the lowest reading observed over a span of 21 months. This significant decline in operational performance across Australia’s private sector is a cause for concern.

The downturn in business activity is a result of several factors, including a reduction in incoming orders, an unfavorable demand climate, mounting inflationary pressures, and elevated interest rates. The volume of new export business experienced a decline for the eighth consecutive month.

Input costs continued their rapid advancement, stimulated by rising inflation that reached a three-month high. Output prices exhibited an increase as well, albeit weakened customer demand exerted pressure on pricing capabilities, resulting in the slowest pace of charge inflation since March 2021.

(The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI，S&P Global) 

A Roadmap for Success

To revive the Australian manufacturing sector and ensure employment stays viable, a well-thought-out roadmap is necessary. Here are some key strategies that can be employed:

1. Innovation and Technology Adoption

The manufacturing sector should invest in research and development to enhance product quality and efficiency. Embracing advanced technologies like automation, robotics, and data analytics can significantly improve productivity.

2. Sustainable Practices

Implementing sustainable practices not only reduces the environmental impact but also attracts consumers who prioritize eco-friendly products. This can create new markets and opportunities for growth.

3. Skills Development

Investing in the workforce is crucial. Upskilling employees to meet the demands of a changing industry is essential. Government incentives and partnerships with educational institutions can facilitate this process.

4. Export Diversification

Reducing reliance on a single market by diversifying export destinations can safeguard against economic downturns in specific regions. Exploring emerging markets and trade agreements can open up new avenues.

5. Government Support

Collaboration with the government for policy changes and financial support is vital. Encouraging initiatives that stimulate growth, such as tax incentives for research and development, can be a game-changer.

Conclusion

To sum up, within the current landscape of Australia’s manufacturing sector, there lie not only challenges but also promising avenues for expansion and renaissance.

Through the wholehearted adoption of innovation, sustainability, skills enhancement, diversification in exports, and the backing of governmental initiatives, the sector can carve a trajectory towards triumph, safeguarding the viability of employment in the process.

Australia’s manufacturing industry has a bright future if it can adapt to the changing times and navigate the challenges effectively.

Comprehensive GBP/USD for October 24, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBP/USD for 20th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Unemployment rate is the key: The British unemployment rate rose slightly in August, which means that the labor market continues to cool down, reducing inflation to a certain extent. If the unemployment rate continues to rise today, the pound may weaken and fall. 
• Economic pressure in the UK: UK PMI data for October will be released this afternoon, which has always been below the 50 boom-bust line in the early stage. Last week’s UK retail sales data and inflation report both showed that economic activity is weakening, and today’s data may still be in the contraction range. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis 

GBP/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator completed the “golden cross” structure again yesterday, and there is a certain probability that the short-term market will continue to rise. 
• Price Action: Last week the bar came out of a bottom structure. In conjunction with the sharp rise yesterday, the bar has formed an evening star combination structure. The market has a probability of continuing to rise. 
• Moving average resistance: The current exchange rate is below the 33-day moving average (black line). At the same time, the overall market price and short-term moving average are also below the 200-day moving average (dashed line). Even if it is now experiencing a short-term rise, it cannot be premature to conclude that the reversal of the pound is coming. 

GBP/USD 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is entangled in the overbought area. Currently, bulls in the market have the upper hand, and there is some correction pressure on the short-term exchange rate. 
• Price action: In the end, the market price broke through the previous lowering highs, the overall downward structure was destroyed, and the intraday market ushered in a reversal. If you want to enter the market with the trend, you need to wait for the retracement structure to appear. 
• Elliot wave structure: After the market price quickly broke through the upward channel line yesterday, it can be temporarily judged that driving wave 3 is underway. The support position is the upper edge of the upward channel. After the market falls back, you can look for trading opportunities. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator 

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.22157, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.22157, first target 1.22890, second target 1.23315; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below  1.22157, first target 1.21739, second target 1.21013. 

Conclusion 

Geopolitical Turmoil Fuels Oil Price Surge

Amidst the volatile landscape of the global oil market, October 2023 stands out as a month of upheaval and uncertainty, with crude oil prices surging to a noteworthy $90 per barrel.

This escalation can be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, notably the intensifying conflicts between Israel and Gaza, which has far-reaching implications for the world’s energy sector.

Crude Prices Rushed to US$90 on Escalating Tensions in Middle East   

Escalating turmoil between Israel and Gaza ramped up concerns of supply disruptions among key producers in the Middle East. Additionally, U.S. military forces in Iraq were targeted in two separate drone attacks further intensifying market sentiment. Both WIT and Brent have emerged at the $90 per barrel mark, a significant technical threshold.  

(Brent Crude One-year Chart) 

(WIT Crude One-year Chart) 

Sharp Decrease in Global Oil Reserves 

According to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, in August, there was a significant decline in global oil inventories, with a decrease of 63.9 million barrels (mb) observed.

This drop was primarily driven by a massive drawdown of 102.3 mb in crude oil stocks. Initial data indicates that inventories on land continued to decrease in September, but there was a rebound in oil stored on water as exports started to recover.

Inventory Trends

In the OECD countries, industry stocks experienced an unusual decline of 6.5 mb in August, reaching a total of 2,816 mb, which is substantially lower by 105.3 mb compared to the five-year average. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the surge in crude oil prices to $90 per barrel in October 2023 can be primarily attributed to escalating geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East.

The tensions between Israel and Gaza, coupled with drone attacks on U.S. military forces in Iraq, have heightened concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply chain.

As a result, the energy industry and financial markets are navigating a period of uncertainty, emphasizing the interconnectedness of geopolitics and global energy markets.

We will continue to watch these developments closely, as they have the potential to reshape the oil market landscape in the coming months.

Comprehensive GBP/USD for October 20, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBP/USD for 20th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• High Inflation low hike expectations: Although Wednesday’s CPI data was stronger than expected, considering that CPI is still lower than the central bank’s August forecast of 6.9%, the monthly price level still maintains a downward trend. Therefore, the Bank of England may continue to maintain the current high interest rates for some time. 
• Powell disturbed the market: In the early morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech that if he saw further signs of strong economic growth, he might raise interest rates again. This statement shocked the market. 
• Lack of long-term economic momentum in the UK: The UK faces high public debt, a possible recession, rising energy prices and the upcoming general election, all of which may limit economic growth and hit the pound. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis 

GBP/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator fell below the midline yesterday, and there is a possibility that the market will decline further. 
• Price Action: The bar closed as a doji bar yesterday, indicating the current balance of long and short forces. The market today is bound to be a big fluctuation market – either it will accelerate the decline, or it will rise sharply. 

GBP/USD 4-hour Chart Analysis

• Fibonacci price: Yesterday, the exchange rate rose rapidly after falling to the 78.6% retracement price of the previous upward trend line. It is currently blocked by the 33-period and 65-period moving averages. If the 78.6% retracement level still fails to prevent the market from falling, the exchange rate may look towards the 1.2036. 
• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has formed a golden cross yesterday and is currently blocked at the 50 midline. This means that short-term bulls are exhausted, and transactions still need to wait for the breakthrough of the midline before confirmation. 
• Price Action: The market has rebounded four times in a row, and each rebound cannot exceed the previous one. The continuous lowering of high price means that the short force always has the upper hand. If the market wants to reverse, it needs to destroy the current structure, that is, break through the previous rebound high of 1.2190. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.21427, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above1.21427, first target 1.21933, second target 1.22434; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below  1.21427, first target 1.20921, second target 1.20402. 

Conclusion 

Australia Unemployment Rate Hit New Lows in the last three months

As of September, the nation boasts a strikingly low unemployment rate of 3.6%, surpassing market expectations and marking a significant improvement from August’s 3.7% figure.

The ripple effect of this achievement is evident as 19.8 thousand people found employment, reducing the total number of unemployed individuals to 520.5 thousand. The youth unemployment rate remains stable at 8.1%.

Peeling Back the Layers: A Deeper Dive

While the reduced unemployment rate is undoubtedly a noteworthy feat, a more granular analysis unveils a complex employment landscape:

Employment Statistics

• Total employment increased by a modest 6.7 thousand, reaching 14.11 million, falling short of market expectations set at 20 thousand.
• August saw a more substantial increase of 63.3 thousand, highlighting the employment market’s volatility.
• Part-time employment surged, with 46.5 thousand individuals securing part-time positions, totaling 4.30 million. In contrast, full-time employment saw a decrease of 39.9 thousand, resulting in 9.81 million full-time workers.

Participation Rate and Underemployment

• The participation rate, calculated as the number of job seekers relative to the total adult population, witnessed a slight decrease, falling from the all-time high of 67% to 66.7%. This hints at the nuanced dynamics of employment.
• On the flip side, underemployment, reflecting the number of individuals seeking additional work, saw a modest drop from 6.5% to 6.4%. This suggests that those who are employed are aligning their work with their preferences and skill sets.

(Unemployment Rate, Australian Bureau of Statistics) 

RBA to hike rates likely again 

For last four months, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have not changed their interest rate. The RBA has been attempting to determine if those 12 rate increases were sufficient enough to control the inflation levels. 

According to the RBA, inflation will reach its 2–3% target by June 2025. On the other hand, RBA forecasts a slow upward turn in the unemployment rates to reach 4% by 2023 year-end. On Friday, November 10, the RBA will publish their latest forecasts. 

Conclusion

The employment data for September 2023 paints a compelling picture of Australia’s economic trajectory. The substantial drop in the unemployment rate, combined with the intricate details of employment types, has garnered the attention of diverse stakeholders.

As the RBA assesses the impact of its recent rate decisions on inflation, these employment statistics will undoubtedly steer future monetary policy.

In this dynamic economic landscape, staying informed and adaptable is paramount for making well-informed financial choices.

As the future unfolds, keep a vigilant eye on Australia’s employment scenario, a pivotal indicator of the nation’s economic health.