Comprehensive EUR/NZD Analysis for October 13, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EUR/NZD for 13th October 2023. 

U.S. CPI Rose: U.S. CPI rose for the second consecutive month in…..

Key Takeaways 

• U.S. CPI Rose: U.S. CPI rose for the second consecutive month in September, which may support the Federal Reserve’s intention to keep interest rates higher for a longer period of time. 
• New Zealand Manufacturing Index: New Zealand’s manufacturing performance index continued to decline in September, with the index in September being 45.3, compared with the previous value of 46.1. It highlights that New Zealand’s manufacturing industry remains sluggish. 
• Speech by the chairman of the RBNZ: Governor Adrian Orr recently stated that the RBNZ interest rates need to remain tight in the foreseeable future. This lowered previous market expectations that the RBNZ would keep interest rates unchanged in November. 

EUR/NZD Technical Analysis 

EUR/NZD Daily Chart Insights

• Price action: The price finally breakthrough pin bar above. As analyzed on Wednesday, the market will most likely start a bullish trend this week, and is about to form a “W-shaped” bottom structure. 
• Moving average: From the perspective of moving average technical indicators, the exchange rate was eventually blocked and rebounded on the 240-day moving average. The 33-day and 63-day moving average is near the resistance area of 1.78238. There is a certain probability that the exchange rate will be blocked and adjusted today. 

EUR/NZD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic Oscillator: Technical indicators show that the market has been seriously overbought, and the market has strong motivation to adjust. 
• Moving average: Above the price is the 200-period moving average. Similar to the daily chart, the combined resistance area will suppress the exchange rate from rising further. 
• Elliot Wave: The rapid rise since yesterday is currently judged to be motive wave 3. After the correction, the exchange rate has a certain probability of stepping back on the upper edge of the upward channel. It is also the moving average support level in the 65 and 33 period areas. 

Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.77224, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.77224, the first target is 1.78287, the second target is 1.78902. 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.77224, first target 1.76614, second target 1.75563. 

Conclusion

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

FOMC meeting minutes published 

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September meeting on the 11th. To bring inflation back to the 2% target, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy is key. Most officials judged that it may be appropriate to raise interest rates again at future meetings. Some, however, believed that further interest rate hikes were not necessary. The minutes of the meeting also pointed out that the U.S. economy is expanding at a stable pace and the labor market is gradually reaching balance. However, inflation continues to be higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. Federal Reserve officials estimate that economic growth must fall below 1.8% to allow the trend of rising prices to be eased. 

Sep. PPI increased 0.5% MoM 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also released inflation data. Producer prices in the US rose 0.5% month-over-month in September 2023, the least in three months, following a 0.7% rise in August, but above market forecasts of 0.3%. Goods prices were up 0.9%, prompted by a 5.4% surge in gasoline cost. 

(PPI MoM , U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) 

Sep. Core PPI increased 0.3% MoM 

Core producer prices in the United States were up by 0.3% over the previous month in September of 2023, following a 0.2% rise in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of a 0.2% increase. On a yearly basis, core consumer prices advanced by 2.7%, after an upwardly revised 2.5% rise in August and surpassing market estimates of a 2.3% increase, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. 

( Core PPI MoM , US Bureau of Labor Statistics) 

Rising bond yields could reduce expectations for rate hikes 

FOMC has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times to a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high. Treasury yields have been rising sharply after the last meeting. If the situation persists, rising yields could eliminate the need for another rate hike. 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive Brent Oil Analysis for October 12, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the Brent Oil (UKOUSD) for 12th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Dovish speeches : Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic have continued their recent dovish stances. The market is betting that the probability of raising interest rates in November is less than 9%. 
• The reduction agreement may be extended: Putin said that the OPEC+ (production reduction) agreement is likely to be extended, and further measures may be taken next year to stabilize the market. 
• API inventories surge: U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by nearly 13 million barrels last week, the largest increase since January. As supply concerns subside and API crude oil inventories increase significantly, U.S. and Brent oil prices fell in the short term. 

Technical Analysis In Brent Oil Trading Chart

Brent Oil Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has a downward trend today, but it has not yet clearly formed a “dead cross”. We need to wait for confirmation of today’s oil price trend. 
• Price Action:  The price gap below is a common potential support price. The market will have a certain probability of rebounding and rising. 
• Moving average: The price that jumped in the early stage fell after being blocked by the 33-day moving average, and the first target below is the 240-day moving average. This price overlaps with the price gap, so the decline today is temporarily judged as an adjustment.  On the contrary, only after falling below the low price of October 6 can it be confirmed that crude oil prices will continue to follow a long-term short trend.

Brent Oil 1-Hour Chart Analysis

• Fibonacci price: Temporarily judge that the current downward trend is the adjustment structure of the previous upward trend. It can be seen from the Fibonacci retracement line (black) and Fibonacci extension level (red) that it has reached 61.8. % callback and 100% proportional expansion position, the market has a certain probability of support. If it continues to break down, the market will look toward the 78.6% correction and 138.2% proportional expansion. 
• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator went down again during today’s Asian trading session. Wait for the “golden cross” to appear in the oversold area to confirm the arrival of the bull trend. 

Brent Oil Pivot Indicator

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 87.055, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 87.055, first target is 87.978, second target is 89.880. 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 87.055, first target 85.152, second target 84.229. 

Conclusion for Brent Oil Analysis

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Comprehensive EUR/NZD Analysis for October 11, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EUR/NZD for 11th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Pay attention to governors’ speeches: Many Fed governors will speak in public today and pay attention to potential monetary policy attitudes. 
• The Palestinian-Israeli conflict supports the US dollar: The recent instability in the Middle East may provide support for the recent weakness of the US dollar, and the euro will be relatively suppressed. 
• The RBNZ would hike rates this year: New Zealand’s strong immigration and expansionary fiscal policies this year have weakened the impact of the current interest rate level of 5.5%. The market expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the official cash rate to 5.75% in November. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Price action: the bar yesterday closed into a Pin Bar, which is a strong bearish signal. The market has greater downward momentum today. However, it is worth noting that if the market breaks through yesterday’s high, it will be another breakthrough price action, and the market will most likely start a bullish trend this week. 
• 240-day moving average: The exchange rate has adjusted at the 240-day moving average for two days in the previous period. There is a certain probability of breaking through this support level today.

1-Hour Chart Analysis 

• Stochastic Oscillator: Technical indicators have shown the upward trend and the market has a certain rebound momentum in the Asian session. For the rebound to turn into an upward reversal, it is necessary to cooperate with the price trend to break through the moving average suppression. 
• Moving average : The current rebound of EURNZD is blocked by the blue 17-period moving average and the 33-period moving average. Before breaking through this resistance, the entire trend is still judged to be a rebound. 
• Support level: If the subsequent price falls below the intraday low of 1.75284, today’s upward trend will be confirmed as a rebound, and you can pay attention to entry opportunities at that time. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.75552, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.75552, the first target is 1.76025, and the second target is 1.76801 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.75552, first target 1.74776, second target 1.74283. 

Conclusion 

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

World economy to grow 3% YoY 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economy to grow by 3% this year as stronger-than-expected growth in the United States offsets lower prospects for China and Europe and cut its 2024 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. 

Fast economic recovery in the US 

The International Monetary Fund says: “The strongest recovery among major economies is the United States, which is increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario.” The agency expects the overall economic growth of the 20 countries using the euro to be 0.7% for 2023 and 1.2% next year; while China’s economy will grow by 5% this year and 4.2% in 2024, and specifically points out: “The crisis in China’s real estate industry may deepen and have global spillover effects, especially for commodity exporters.” In contrast, the U.S. economic growth forecast is raised to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. 

Global inflation forecast raises to 6.9% 

The International Monetary Fund raises its global inflation forecasts for this year and next year by 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points to 6.9% and 5.8% respectively. Commodity prices pose “serious risks” to the inflation outlook and could become more volatile due to climate and geopolitical shocks. “Expectations of higher inflation in the future are likely to influence current inflation rates, keeping them high,” the IMF notes. 

Real estate impacted by high interests  

The International Monetary Fund also addresses that the prospect of “higher in the longer term” interest rates has led to sharp falls in house prices in some countries. Vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate sector “pose significant risks to the financial sector” and urge policymakers to assess the impact that a sharp drop in real estate prices could have on financial institutions. 

(GDP YoY Growth 2023，IMF) 

(GDP YoY Growth，IMF ) 

Red: developing economies，Yellow: World，Green: Advanced economies 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.