{"id":6414,"date":"2023-09-14T03:45:48","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T03:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/?p=4688"},"modified":"2023-09-14T03:45:48","modified_gmt":"2023-09-14T03:45:48","slug":"u-s-inflation-data-in-august-unexpectedly-raised-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/u-s-inflation-data-in-august-unexpectedly-raised-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Surprising Rise in U.S. Inflation Data for August 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-post-date has-text-color has-black-color\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/u-s-inflation-data-in-august-unexpectedly-raised-2\/\"><time datetime=\"2023-09-14T03:45:48+00:00\">September 14, 2023<\/time><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\" \/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color\"><strong>Understanding the Surprising Rise in U.S. Inflation Data<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On September 13<sup>th<\/sup>, the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market estimate of 3.6%, and higher than the previous value of 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">However, excluding food and energy Core CPI increased by 4.3% YoY, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 4.7%. It was the smallest increase in the past two years, but it was still higher than the Fed&#8217;s 2% target.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"690\" height=\"464\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2023\/09\/2-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4692\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2023\/09\/2-6.png 690w, https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2023\/09\/2-6-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(U.S. Consumer Price Index CPI)&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\" \/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Understanding the Drivers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Examining the report details, energy was the main driver for the growth of CPI in August, accounting for more than half of the CPI increase. On a monthly basis, the growth rate of 5.6% was much higher than the 0.1% growth rate last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Separately, on an annual basis, housing prices increased by 7.3% in August, accounting for more than 70% of core CPI. However, the housing inflation rate is falling sharply, and the slowdown in growth has become more obvious. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In August, transportation (10.3%) beat housing for the first time and became the biggest driver of core CPI. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The production cuts by OPEC+ and the threat of strikes by the United Auto Workers against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis are all creating variables in the fight against inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\" \/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Implications for Monetary Policy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This CPI report is the last important economic data to be seen before the Fed&#8217;s monetary policy meeting next week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">CME Group The FedWatch Tool shows that the interest rate futures market predicts a 97% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged next week and only a 3% chance of raising interest rates by 25 bps. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">However, the chances of keeping interest rates unchanged and raising interest rates by 1% at the November meeting are respectively 60% and nearly 40%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"690\" height=\"464\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2023\/09\/1-7-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4693\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2023\/09\/1-7-1-1.png 690w, https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2023\/09\/1-7-1-1-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(Detailed classification MoM % &amp; YoY%, US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS )&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\" \/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In summary, the unanticipated rise in U.S. inflation data for August 2023 raises critical questions and concerns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">As we explore the drivers behind this increase and the potential impact on monetary policy, it is evident that the economic landscape is evolving rapidly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Market participants and policymakers must remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of dynamic conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The coming months promise to be pivotal as we witness the Federal Reserve&#8217;s response to these unforeseen developments and their broader economic implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Disclaimer&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Understanding the Surprising Rise in U.S. Inflation Data On September 13th, the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market estimate of 3.6%, and higher than the previous value of 3.2%. However, excluding food and energy Core CPI increased by 4.3% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":4746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,21],"tags":[173],"class_list":["post-6414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market_news","category-latest","tag-us-inflation"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6414\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}