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Investor dengan Selera Risiko Rendah Menumpuk di Obligasi AS karena Ekspektasi Penurunan Suku Bunga

um editor

UM Editor

December 27, 2023 at 3:31 am

Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS bertenor 10 tahun turun menjadi 3,88% pada dimulainya kembali perdagangan setelah liburan Natal, tetap mendekati level terendah sejak akhir Juli. Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh antisipasi penurunan suku bunga yang lebih cepat dan lebih signifikan di tahun mendatang, didorong oleh rilis data inflasi yang lemah di AS. Angka terbaru dari Jumat lalu menunjukkan penurunan 0,1% dalam indeks harga PCE AS untuk bulan November, menandai penurunan pertama sejak Februari 2022 dan menyimpang dari ekspektasi pasar yang memperkirakan angka yang datar. Saat ini, sentimen pasar menunjukkan probabilitas 75% penurunan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin oleh Federal Reserve pada bulan Maret. Alat CME FedWatch menunjukkan prospek lebih dari 150 basis poin dalam total penurunan suku bunga untuk tahun mendatang. 

(US 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield) 

(CME FedWatch Tool for March FOMC Meeting) 

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