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几个月来,欧元已经摆脱了糟糕的经济消息,物价水平稳步下行。这也意味着欧央行紧缩政策或将放缓。在接下来的时间里,市场重点关注欧洲央行9月份是否如市场预期暂停加息。

(欧元区近一年通胀水平)
本周焦点将落在周三公布的8月PMI初值上。预测显示,制造业的下滑继续加深,并开始影响规模大得多的服务业,给欧元区经济踩下了刹车。
如果数据继续放缓,欧洲央行可能会在9月份“暂停”紧缩周期,这可能会对欧元造成打击。
目前,多数经济学家认为,欧洲央行将在9月暂停加息,但在通胀升温的情况下,年底前仍有可能进一步加息。
此外,周六的杰克逊霍尔全球央行经济研讨会上,欧央行行长拉加德讲话十分重要,其会否继续维持鹰派态度将是市场紧盯的一个重点。
过去一周,数据显示,美国经济继续维持强劲势头。零售销售数据和制造业数据意外上涨,而住宅建设继续保持强劲势头。美元的强势导致欧元兑美元的仍处于颓势,并没有迎来市场所期待的大幅度反弹。

(欧元兑美元日线周期,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
7月4日的价格低点是近期行情的关键价位,若被跌破则6月份以来的上涨势头被打破,欧元兑美元距离大幅反弹或仍遥遥无期。
值得注意的是,欧元兑美元整体的波动率明显放缓,无论是价格图标上的整体波幅,还是技术指标的200周期ATR的平均水平都在下降。这意味着本周欧央行拉加德若发表关于任何9月份货币政策的路径前瞻措辞,都极大概率引爆市场波动。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
通過 Equinix NY4 服務器實現指令快速執行