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英国央行最终还是迫于通胀的压力,选择加息25基点。连续14次的加息让英国基准利率从5%提高至5.25%,利率水平再次刷新2008年以来的新高。

(英国央行近25年政策利率水平)
英国央行预计,到今年年底,英国通胀率可能会放缓至4.9%左右,但要达到2%的目标,可能需要等到2025年初。

(英国央行官网8月利率决议简述)
英国央行连续几次的25基点加息让市场对于未来的峰值利率不再高看,从前期的5.74%预期下调至5.68%上下。潜在加息步伐放缓,导致英央行利率决议后英镑先面临了一波下跌。与此同时,虽然英国央行反复强调了之前的观点,认为英国经济不会进入衰退,并将今年的GDP增速由5月预测0.25%上调至0.5%。
但由于率上升意味着更高的借贷成本,这将导致许多房主每月有更多的抵押贷款支出。央行的加息可能会给那些有抵押贷款的人以及面临租金大幅上涨的租户带来更多痛苦,贷款成本最终会转嫁给租户。目前英国两年期抵押贷款的平均利率现在接近7%的水平。未来的经济状况依旧需要后续的经济数据来验证。

(英镑兑美元4小时周期,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
技术角度上,英镑兑美元在加息落地后有一定反弹上行空间。4小时周期上,裸K结构显示明确的沃尔夫浪。点3在点1下方,点4回撤至点2和点3的价格区间内,点5在昨日跌至点1和点3连线后反弹上行。短期英镑兑美元有一定反弹概率,第一目标看向点4水平价位,第二目标则是点1和点4连线一带。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
通過 Equinix NY4 服務器實現指令快速執行