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上周铜价终于止住连续三周的跌势,虽然最后周线仍然收为阴K,但是长下影线暗示了本周的铜价或将展开反攻。

(伦铜周线图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
铜无论是作为基建上还是未来新能源上都是不可忽视的大宗材料。铜价涉及供需情况、宏观经济数据以及全球央行政策等多个方面。这些因素将在未来影响铜市的走势和投资者的决策。
最近的CFTC持仓数据显示,非商业空头持仓占比持续上升,而多头持仓占比则在下降。这种趋势表明投机性的空头在增加,而多头逐渐减少。

(非商业空头持仓占比持续上升,来源CFTC)
从供需角度来看,铜市场正受到全球供需平衡的影响。当前全球铜显性库存处于历史低位,显示了供应紧张的现状。这意味着哪怕需求稍微有所改善,也可能引发铜价的反弹。这种需求不仅仅是消费需求,还包括投资需求。
三大交易所的铜库存仅有16.5万吨,低于近年同期,这无法满足全球一周的消费量。加之全球新能源行业对铜消费的拉动,以及各国政策对需求的刺激,铜市处于紧平衡状态的情况下,可能会在投资需求升温的推动下出现更大的涨幅。

(伦铜日线图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)
根据伦铜(Ultima Markets MT4上代码为COPPER-C)日线图来看,行情的金叉已经形成,本周的短期多头趋势是大概率事件。65日周期均线是铜价的第一目标位,若价格被突破则行情将受空头止损离场的因素,导致行情快速上行。
总的来说,对于铜市来说,行情本周技术面上处于反弹周期。基本面上,库存和供需来看铜价已经由长期多头的势头。本周PMI经济数据或将刺激美元的实际利率,该变化也会对铜价产生影响,下降的实际利率有望刺激铜的投资需求增强。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
通過 Equinix NY4 服務器實現指令快速執行