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喜憂參半數據和強勢美元令人民幣承壓

um editor

UM Editor

2024年03月20日

中國零售銷售去年12月錄得年增7.4% 後，2024年1月及2月報年增5.5%，超過市場預期的5.2%。 零售額連續第13個月成長，許多產品銷量增加，如糧油（現值9.0% vs 前值5.8%）、金銀飾品（現值5.0 % vs 前值29.4%）、服裝（現值1.9% vs 前值26.0%）、家具（現值4.6 % vs 前值2.3%）、通訊設備（現值16.2% vs 前值11.0%）、汽車（現值8.7% vs 前值4.0%）、石油產品（現值5.0% vs 前值8.6 %）和建築材料（現值2.1% vs 前值-7.5%）。 但是個人護理用品（現值-0.7% vs 前值-5.9%）和辦公用品（現值-8.8% vs 前值-9.0%）的銷量繼續萎縮。 中國國家統計局公佈每年前兩個月的合併數據，以消除農曆新年季節因素所造成的扭曲結果。 

(零售銷售YoY%，中國國家統計局) 

調查顯示，2024 年前兩個月，中國城鎮平均失業率為 5.3%。2 月數據略有上升，失業率達 5.3%，高於 1 月的 5.2% 和 2023 年 12月的 5.1%。，為去年7月以來最高水平，本地登記勞動失業率為5.5%，移入人口失業率為4.8%，31個主要城鎮失業率為5.1%，且企業員工平均每週工作時為48小時。 

中國政府設定2024年GDP成長目標達5%，失業率控制在5.5% 左右，為城鎮新增1,200萬就業人口。 

(失業率，中國國家統計局) 

投資人咀嚼最新經濟報告後，離岸人民幣兌美元匯率跌破7.2，觸及一週多的最低水準。 由於美國通膨數據出人意料地強勁，這給聯準會今年降息的時間表和幅度增加了不確定性，迫使人民幣繼續面臨挑戰。 美國 2 月消費者和生產者物價上漲超出預期，導致交易員降低對聯準會 6 月降息的預期。 隨著美國債券殖利率回彈，而中國債券殖利率徘徊在歷史低點附近，不斷擴大的利差也給人民幣帶來了額外壓力。 

(USDCNY週線圖) 

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