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日本藉資本支出之力避開經濟衰退 

um editor

UM Editor

2024年03月11日

日本國內生產毛額 (GDP) 去年第三季下滑 0.8%，第四季度反轉頹勢季增 0.1%，優於最初報告預測下降0.1%。 雖然僅是小幅上漲，卻幫助日本避免陷入預期中的衰退。 有趣的是，支撐力道得益於資本支出意外增長2.0%，其第三季數據則下降 0.1%。 

另外，貿易順差亦帶來正面影響，出口成長2.6%，強於僅成長1.7%的進口。 然而，佔經濟一半以上的個人消費卻不幸連續第三個季度萎縮達負0.3%。 內需因價格和全球經濟不確定性而壓抑。 

政府支出降幅大於預估，下降 0.2%，而非預期的 0.1%。 此前，第三季政府支出成長0.3%。 同樣，公共投資大幅收縮 0.8%，超出預期的 0.7% 降幅。 第三季公共投資已出現 1.0% 的下滑。 

最新的統計數據強化了日本央行可能在不久的將來開始升息的猜測，部分投資人押注3月份升息。 日本央行委員中川順子近期表示，經濟可望實現通膨和薪資往上的良性循環。 由於對聯準會不急降息，使美元和美國公債殖利率下降，進而幫助日幣升值。 日幣兌美元匯率走強，突破147大關，創一個多月來最高匯率。  

(GDP季成長率，日本內閣府) 

(USDJPY 月線圖) 

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