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全球領導人齊聚 COP28 氣候高峰會,倡導擺脫化石燃料的同時,OPEC對石油需求的預期卻出現分歧。 OPEC在最新報告中表示2024年原油需求將強勁成長,全球每日平均需求將增加220萬桶,達到1億436萬桶。
OPEC將此增長與全球經濟復甦掛勾並說明:“隨著中國經濟改善,全球GDP回溫,石油需求將得到支撐。” 經濟合作暨發展組織(OECD)工業化國家的每日需求量預期將成長30萬桶,來到平均每日4610萬桶。 然而,非OECD國家的每日需求量將大幅成長200萬桶,來到平均每日5830萬桶。
12 月 15 日星期五,油市攀升,布蘭特原油逼近每桶 77 美元,為兩個月以來首週收漲。 幾個關鍵因素推動升勢,包括聯準會對未來利率轉鴿派的立場以及近期美元疲軟。 此外,新的預測明年全球石油需求將強勁增長,進一步支撐價格。 上週,聯準會表示可能在2024年降息,引發美元賣壓並提振石油等風險資產。 美元貶值使得原油等以美元計價的商品對外國買家來說更加便宜。

(布蘭特原油USD/Bbl 月線圖)
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