{"id":6761,"date":"2024-02-21T15:41:24","date_gmt":"2024-02-21T07:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/tc\/?p=6761"},"modified":"2024-02-21T16:32:29","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T08:32:29","slug":"timing-the-federal-reserves-next-interest-rate-cut-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/tc\/timing-the-federal-reserves-next-interest-rate-cut-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u81a8\u9811\u56fa\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u4f55\u6642\u964d\u606f\uff1f\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u6709\u96d9\u91cd\u4f7f\u547d\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u80a9\u8ca0\u8457\u78ba\u4fdd\u901a\u81a8\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u4e4b\u9593\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4efb\u52d9\u3002 \u6bcf\u4f4d\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u90fd\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u4ed6\u5011\u662f\u5728\u8cfc\u8cb7\u725b\u5976\u548c\u96de\u86cb\u7b49\u65e5\u5e38\u7528\u54c1\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u79df\u623f\u7686\u53d7\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u7684\u727d\u5f15\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u73fe\u5728\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u9019\u4e9b\u5de6\u53f3\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\uff1a <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u751f\u7522\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08PPI\uff09\uff1a <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2024\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u7d42\u9700\u6c42\u751f\u7522\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6708\u589e0.3%\u3002 \u9019\u662f\u7e7c\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u4e0b\u964d 0.1% \u5f8c\u4e94\u500b\u6708\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u4e26\u8d85\u4e4e\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u4f30\u76840.1%\u3002 \u7531\u65bc\u9580\u8a3a\u91ab\u9662\u8b77\u7406\u50f9\u683c\u5f37\u6f32 2.2%\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347 0.6%\uff0c\u70ba 7 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6f32\u5e45\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.2%\uff0c\u5831\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6c7d\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u8dcc 3.6%\u3002\u751f\u7522\u8005\u51fa\u5ee0\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u4e0a\u6f320.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc12\u6708\u4efd\u76841%\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u4f46\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u76840.6%\u3002 \u6392\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6838\u5fc3PPI\u6708\u589e0.5%\uff0c\u5e74\u589e2%\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u6578\u64da\u90fd\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578 (CPI)\uff1a<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2024 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6708\u589e 0.3%\uff0c\u5beb\u4e0b\u56db\u500b\u6708\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u8d85\u8d8a12\u67080.2% \u7684\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u4e5f\u8d85\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u76840.2%\u3002 \u4f4f\u623f\u6307\u6578\u6301\u7e8c\u6500\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c0d\u6574\u9ad4\u6708\u50f9\u683c\u6f32\u5e45\u8ca2\u737b\u8d85\u904e\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6c7d\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.9%\u3002 \u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u57281\u6708\u4efd\u6708\u589e0.4%\uff0c\u90542023\u5e744\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u8f03\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u76840.3% \u6578\u503c\u6709\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u76840.3%\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024\u5e741\u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u5e74\u589e3.1%\uff0c\u589e\u901f\u8f0312\u6708\u76843.4% \u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u671f\u76842.9% \u6f32\u5e45\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff08\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\uff09\u57282024\u5e741\u6708\u964d\u52302.5\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u4f4e\u9ede3.9%\uff0c\u8207\u4e0a\u6708\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u6e2c\u76843.7%\u3002 \u4f4f\u623f\u6307\u6578\u53bb\u5e74\u6210\u9577\u4e866.0%\uff0c\u4f54\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\uff08\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\uff09\u5168\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u7e3d\u984d\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u6708\u589e\u7387\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\uff08\u85cd\u8272\uff1a\u7f8e\u570bCPI\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff0c\u7d05\u8272\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\uff08\u4f4f\u623f\u6307\u6578\u5e74\u7387\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08PCE\uff09\uff1a  <\/strong>
<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2023\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u6708\u589e0.2%\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5e02\u5834\u671f\u5f85\uff0c\u81ea11\u6708\u4e0b\u964d0.1% \u5f8c\u5fae\u5f48\u3002 \u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f320.3%\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u5247\u4e0b\u964d0.2%\u3002\u5e74\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u57282.6%\uff0c\u4ea6\u7b26\u5408\u9810\u6e2c\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u504f\u597d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\u8f03\u4e0a\u6708 0.1% \u5fae\u5347\u81f3 0.2%\uff0c\u8207\u9810\u4f30\u7121\u7570\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f320.1%\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f320.3%\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\u7387\u5e74\u7387\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c 11 \u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5f9e 3.2% \u964d\u81f3 2.9%\uff0c\u5275\u4e0b 2021 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u9ede\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u7684 3%\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\uff08\u85cd\u8272\uff1a\u7f8e\u570bPCE\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff0c\u9ec3\u8272\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6838\u5fc3PCE \u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff1a <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2024\u5e741\u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7a69\u7a69\u57283.7%\uff0c\u8207\u4e0a\u6708\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u76843.8%\u3002\u52de\u52d5\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u7dad\u6301\u572862.5%\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e742\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u3002 \u5118\u7ba1\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u9006\u98a8\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecd\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u4f4e\u5931\u696d\u7387\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bcc\u5f48\u6027\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7406\u7576\u652f\u6490\u85aa\u8cc7\u6c34\u6e96\u3002 2024\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u79c1\u4eba\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u54e1\u5de5\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6642\u85aa\u5e74\u589e4.5%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u76844.1%\u589e\u5e45\u3002\u9019\u662f\u81ea2023\u5e749\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5c0f\u6642\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6700\u5f37\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u670d\u52d9\u6210\u672c\u6301\u7e8c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5c0f\u6642\u6536\u5165\u5e74\u7387\uff09 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u5728\u5167\u9700\u7121\u7919\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ea\u8981\u53ef\u884c\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u8f15\u6613\u504f\u96e2\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f9e\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6700\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u5206\u6790\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u6578\u64da\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u8da8\u52e2\u7121\u6cd5\u69cb\u6210\u7acb\u5373\u964d\u606f\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u514d\u8cac\u8072\u660e <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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