{"id":5638,"date":"2023-11-13T09:06:04","date_gmt":"2023-11-13T01:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/?p=5638"},"modified":"2024-02-05T07:54:26","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T07:54:26","slug":"given-japans-lost-decades-why-the-nikkei-225-index-still-hit-new-highs-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/given-japans-lost-decades-why-the-nikkei-225-index-still-hit-new-highs-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Nikkei 225 Index Still Hit New Highs This Year?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-post-date has-text-color has-black-color has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/given-japans-lost-decades-why-the-nikkei-225-index-still-hit-new-highs-this-year\/\"><time datetime=\"2023-11-13T09:06:04+00:00\">November 13, 2023<\/time><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color\"><strong>Why the Nikkei 225 Index Surpassed Expectations in 2023?<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">When it comes to the Japanese economy, that clich\u00e9d comment always pops up in our mind: &#8220;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/l\/lost-decade.asp#:~:text=The%20Lost%20Decade%20is%20a,(GNP)%20in%20the%20world.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"The Lost Decades\">The Lost Decades<\/a><\/strong>&#8220;. Since the collapse of the bubble economy in the 1980s and 1990s, the Nikkei 225 Index has been sluggish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Especially when the COVID-19 epidemic broke out a few years ago, the Index once fell to a low of more than 16,000. Everything seems to indicate that the &#8220;lost decades&#8221; of Japan&#8217;s economy will continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Nikkei 225&#8217;s Remarkable Journey<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/investing\/index\/nik?countrycode=jp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"Nikkei 225 index\">Nikkei 225 index<\/a>, however, defied all logic by making a turnaround just after it hit bottom at the beginning of the recession.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This year, on 19th of May, the Nikkei 225 index went beyond 30,800 points, achieving its highest level since 1990.&nbsp;That said, the Japanese stock market has kept rising ever since.&nbsp;It was as high as 33,000 just in June, beating most stock markets throughout the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Why has the Japanese stock market, which has been in the doldrums for many years, been able to come back to life and continue to rise this year? After this round of surge, can the Nikkei 225 Index further continue its rise in the future? This article will take you to find out.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1-65.png\" alt=\"The performance of the Nikkei 225 Index in the past 5 years\" class=\"wp-image-5639\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The low financing cost of Japanese Yen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The exchange rate is usually crucial to a country&#8217;s stock market. For many non-U.S. currencies, once the domestic currency exchange rates against the U.S. dollar rise, the stock market prices will rise accordingly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/assetmanagement\/insights\/thematic-viewpoints\/apac-and-emerging\/articles\/stock-connect-china-a-shares-faqs-equity-investing.html#:~:text=to%20H%2Dshares%3F-,China%20A%2Dshares%20are%20RMB%2Ddenominated%20equity%20shares%20of%20China,Shenzhen%20Stock%20Exchange%20(SZSE).\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"China's A-shares\">China&#8217;s A-shares<\/a> are a typical example. Once the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rises, the performance of A-share market will tend to start an upward trend. But Japan\u2019s stock market is exactly a counterexample. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In the past five years (as of the time of writing), the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has fallen by approximately 23.75%, but the Nikkei 225 index has increased by approximately 38%, obviously showing a negative correlation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The reasons for this phenomenon mainly lie in two aspects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Extremely low financing cost of Japanese Yen<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Continuous inflow of foreign capital into Japan\u2019s stock market<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Since it is widely known that, following Japan\u2019s economic bubble burst some thirty years ago, the BoJ has been engaged with slack monetary policies for quite some time in an endeavor at reviving market sentiment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It is clear that for so many years the Bank of Japan\u2019s efforts to rehabilitate the market have gone unnoticed.&nbsp;However, those efforts helped to maintain Japan\u2019s incredibly low-interest rates and finance costs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">By lowering interest rates and purchasing government bonds, the Bank of Japan has effectively kept funding costs down. This means that businesses and investors can obtain funds at a lower cost, stimulating investment activity and increasing market liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Low financing costs also provide companies with more room for capital returns, thus creating<strong> a basis for stock market gains.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, it is no hidden secret that the Japanese yen has a very low cost of financing.&nbsp;This rate has been relatively low over multiple decades.&nbsp;So, the low financing rate by itself is definitely insufficient to justify the reason why the Nikkei 225 Index has shot up in the past few years.&nbsp;This leads to the second reason: <strong>the inflow of foreign capital<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Foreign Capital Inflow: Shaping Market Dynamics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Foreign capital accounts for more than half of the trading volume in the Japanese stock market, and the flow of foreign capital has an important impact on the Japanese stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"> The internationalization of Japan&#8217;s securities market started early: Since the revision of the Foreign Exchange Law in 1980, Japan has relaxed restrictions on bond investment by non-residents; in 1989, foreign capital was allowed to set up funds for investment; in 1992, the threshold was significantly lowered further, which greatly facilitated foreign investment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Subsequently, the number and transaction volume of foreign investors continued to increase. As of 2021, the number of foreign investors in Japanese exchanges has risen to about 30%, and the trading volume of foreign investors has exceeded 60%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Since 2005, foreign investors\u2019 purchases of Japanese domestic equity securities have shown obvious synchrony with the trend of the Nikkei 225 Index. This shows that <strong>the movement of foreign capital affects the performance of the Japanese stock market to a great extent.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2-57.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5640\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The &#8220;Buffett Effect&#8221; boosts Japanese stock market valuations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The topic pertaining to foreign capital inflows should also not miss mentioning Buffett\u2019s effect.&nbsp;Increasingly, foreign institutions that are associated with Buffet have improved their positions in Japan\u2019s shares, which makes the Nikkei 225 Index grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;Already, in the opening years of the pandemic outbreak at this point (in 2020), Buffett had started buying equity shares in the country\u2019s five leading exchange bodies.&nbsp;For example, during his speech in early May this year at a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, even Buffett declared these five companies to be \u201csmart, big\u201d and that they operate \u201cintelligently\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Everyone knows that Buffet is a \u201cvalue investor\u201d and a long-time investor in stocks with low prices.&nbsp;Buffet\u2019s value investing entails screening for highly profitable firms, reliable cash flows, solid profitability records as well as outstanding leadership.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Today, though Buffet continues to put more of his investment into Japanese companies and he views this as among the markets with great prospects for investment ventures.&nbsp;No doubt, this has attracted more market attention and enhanced the trend in the Japanese equity market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">First of all, <strong>Buffett&#8217;s investment behavior is seen as an endorsement of Japanese companies to some extent<\/strong>.&nbsp; This will increase investors&#8217; confidence in these Japanese-listed companies, thereby driving up stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Secondly, <strong>Buffett is led by long-term investment, and his investment behavior demonstrates his confidence in the long-term growth potential of the company<\/strong>. This long-term investment concept has a positive impact on encouraging investors to maintain a patient and persistent investment attitude. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">After seeing Buffett&#8217;s success in the Japanese market, investors also tend to adopt a longer-term investment strategy and hold stocks with more confidence, which in turn steadily promotes the rise of the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Frame-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5641\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Can the Nikkei 225 Index continue its rise in the future?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Short-term funds may raise the trend for any country\u2019s stock market in the short run, but <strong>the long-term success of a stock market depends on its fundamentals<\/strong>; therefore, the fundamentals of the Japanese stock market are no exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">However, the Japanese economy has long faced a problem, that is, the existence of a large number of &#8220;<strong>zombie companies<\/strong>&#8221; that has hindered economic development. The so-called zombie companies refer to those companies that have stopped production, semi-stopped production, suffered losses for consecutive years, or are insolvent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">They mainly rely on government subsidies and bank loan renewals to survive and operate. Since the Japanese economic bubble thirty years ago, the Bank of Japan has fueled bail-outs to a large number of companies in order to save the market, which has led to the existence of a large number of zombie companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On September 21 this year, Toshiba, a former symbol of Japan&#8217;s manufacturing industry and with a history of 150 years, was officially delisted. Many people believe that the collapse of Toshiba, a famous Japanese company, seems to mean that Japan&#8217;s manufacturing industry is losing its last fig leaf. But if we look at it from another perspective, we may have a completely different feeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Toshiba&#8217;s decline has actually been foreshadowed for a long time. As early as more than ten years ago, Toshiba&#8217;s operating income had been declining year by year. In this regard, Toshiba can only continue to &#8220;shut down departments&#8221; to survive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In 2015, Toshiba sold its image sensor business to Sony; in 2016, it sold its home appliance business to Midea; in 2017, it sold its TV business to Hisense; in 2018, it sold its computer business to Sharp; in 2022, it sold HVAC business to Carrier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It can be said that Toshiba is no longer a star representative of the Japanese economy, but is increasingly looking like a typical zombie company. <strong>If zombie companies like Toshiba can successfully delist, then for the Japanese market, it will be more like creating a new atmosphere.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This is just like investors in China&#8217;s A-shares market often complain that China&#8217;s stock market cannot usher in a bull market because of the lack of a reasonable delisting mechanism, which has led to many junk-listed companies dragging down the performance of A-shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">With Toshiba&#8217;s delisting, Japan seems to have taken a step ahead of A-shares in this regard and has begun to take the initiative to clear out zombie companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In addition to eliminating the remains of the old era, Japan seems to be paying more and more attention to cultivating the &#8220;unicorns&#8221; of the new era. During the &#8220;lost decades&#8221;, Japan has been criticized for its lack of innovative unicorns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">As of the first quarter of this year, among the 1,026 unicorn companies in the world, Japan, the world&#8217;s third largest economy, only has six companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Nikkei 225 New Horizons: Nurturing Innovation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But all this seems to be changing. The past year 2022 was called the &#8220;Year of Entrepreneurship&#8221; in Japan. According to research by KPMG, Japanese startups raised a total of 877.4 billion yen in 2022, a record high. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, these funds are not concentrated in traditional industries, but have poured into emerging industries such as the Internet, financial technology, new energy, and blockchain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Driven by the new trend, Japan&#8217;s GDP in the second quarter of this year grew by as much as 6% year-on-year. Although it was later revised to 4.8%, this is still a very impressive result for a developed economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, just one-quarter GDP growth is certainly not enough to prove that the Japanese economy has completely escaped the lost decades. Moreover, such achievements are mainly achieved by relying on export growth, and Japan&#8217;s domestic personal consumption is still relatively weak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, <strong>we believe that the current Japanese economy does show some new trends, but whether it can continue in the future requires further observation to see whether Japanese citizens can be affected by these new trends<\/strong>, so as to increase personal consumption and investment, and whether integration of Japanese society can emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 The extremely low financing cost of the Japanese yen and the continuous influx of foreign capital into the Japanese market have jointly promoted the rise of the Nikkei 225 Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 The \u201cBuffett effect\u201d further boosted Japanese stock market valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 The future trend of the Nikkei 225 Index depends on Japan&#8217;s local economic and social fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"color:#ddd\" class=\"wp-block-genesis-blocks-gb-spacer gb-block-spacer gb-divider-solid gb-divider-size-1\"><hr style=\"height:30px\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light gb-block-cta\" style=\"padding-top:2%;min-height:13em;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-100 has-background-dim\" style=\"background-color:#f3f4f0\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" style=\"font-size:32px;line-height:1\">Explore Ultima Markets News Hub<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1\">Stay Informed with the Latest Updates \u2013 Dive into Our Articles<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-7d812b4c wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-50 has-custom-font-size gb-block-button has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:1.2\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-black-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/resources\/market-outlook\/news\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;background-color:#d2fc61;padding-top:10px;padding-right:1em;padding-bottom:10px;padding-left:1em\">Explore News<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Disclaimer\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.\u202f<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Copyright \u00a9 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why the Nikkei 225 Index Surpassed Expectations in 2023? When it comes to the Japanese economy, that clich\u00e9d comment always pops up in our mind: &#8220;The Lost Decades&#8220;. Since the collapse of the bubble economy in the 1980s and 1990s, the Nikkei 225 Index has been sluggish. Especially when the COVID-19 epidemic broke out a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":6863,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[6,201,61],"tags":[93],"class_list":["post-5638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-in-depth-analysis","category-market_outlook","tag-nikkei-225-index"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5638"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5638\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6863"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.umtradings.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}