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2月15日周四,英国最新消费者物价指数(CPI)数据公布后,英镑兑美元汇率小幅下跌,滑落于1.26水平下方。 该数据缓解投资人对通胀压力再度复燃的担忧。
英国1月份年通胀率维持在4%,略低于市场预期的4.2%,而英国央行(BoE)最近预估通胀上升至4.1%。 不过,调查也发现去年最后几个月的薪资成长下滑速度缓于预期,代表英国就业市场紧稍,需要更长冷却期。 因此英国央行可能会推迟降息步骤。
本周将发布的英国经济资料包括第四季度 GDP 数据,市场专家预测将下降0.1%,从技术面而言,英国陷入衰退。 相对地,美国1月通胀率超乎预期,削弱了美联储在3月或5月降息的前景,从而导致美元走强,使英镑进一步承压。 大多数专家预计,在全球物价压力大幅下降之前,英国央行额外货币宽松或英镑升值的空间十分有限。

(通货膨胀率,英国国家统计局)

(GBPUSD 周线图)
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