Unveiling the Robust U.S. Economic Landscape Ahead of the Federal Reserve Meeting The Bureau of Labor Statistics released three statistical reports on September 14:  1. Retail sales  U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis higher than market expectations, and the annual growth rate increased from 2.6% to 2.5%. Retail sales […]

Focus on USD/CAD today.  Fundamentally, the continued rise in oil prices this week has driven market demand for the Canadian dollar and promoted the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. This has also made the implementation of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy more difficult to a certain extent. In the short term, oil prices affect […]

Understanding the Surprising Rise in U.S. Inflation Data On September 13th, the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market estimate of 3.6%, and higher than the previous value of 3.2%. However, excluding food and energy Core CPI increased by 4.3% […]

Focus on EUR/USD today.  Fundamentally, Traders will pay more attention to European Central Bank interest rate decision tonight. As the Eurozone’s second-quarter GDP growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%, the latest PMI data also showed that economic activity in the service industry and manufacturing industry shrank intensified in August. The sluggish economy coupled with […]

As a mouthpiece of the Fed, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium always attracts the eyeballs of numerous investors. Considering the current turbulent global economic situation, this year’s meeting is undoubtedly eye-catching. The three-day symposium officially ended in August, and the speeches of renowned financial names captured the world’s attention. 

The ECB Debate: Hawks vs. Doves – Charting a Path Through Uncertainty Since July 2022, interest rates in the euro area have increased by 4.25 percentage points. But as signs of recession in the region become increasingly apparent, with annual price growth now at half its peak of 10.6%, disagreements have emerged within the ECB […]

Focus on Brent Oil today.  Fundamentally, with OPEC and EIA predicting that production cuts will tighten the market in the coming months, Brent crude oil has finally returned to above $90. The International Energy Agency will also release its monthly report today, which is expected to provide more clues to market conditions. The market focuses […]

Through Document Search, FactSet searched for the term “inflation” in the conference call transcripts of all the S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from June 15 through September 7. Of these companies, 296 cited the term “inflation” during their earnings calls for the second quarter. This is the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “inflation” on earnings calls going back to Q2 2021 (221).

UK is to release its latest August unemployment data on Tuesday. The previous PMI final value data for the manufacturing industry confirmed a downward trend, shrinking for the sixth consecutive month. If the job market shows weakness as well, although inflationary pressure decreases, the outlook for the UK economy may be interpreted as sluggish by the market. 

The UK’s Mounting Debt Crisis UK government debt has soared more than 40% since the Covid-19 outbreak in March 2020, reaching nearly 2.6 trillion pounds ($3.3 trillion), the highest level since the early 2020s and about the same as the country’s annual gross domestic product. Inflation-Linked Debt: A Troubling Reality Although some developed countries, for […]